Oil above 100 dollars: the thread connecting policy rates and import costs

For an importing SME, this increase is not limited to its carriers' fuel bill. It feeds into overall inflation, which in turn influences central bank interest rate decisions, which ultimately impact the value of the currencies in which you pay your suppliers. It is this often invisible chain that needs to be understood.

Why oil has risen back above 100 dollars

The price of a barrel of Brent crude surpassed 100 dollars in early September 2026, after falling back below 75 dollars in June (having peaked near 121 dollars in late April). It was still trading around 105 dollars on 25 September, amid exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran and persistent restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a major share of global oil passes. This increase comes on top of existing tensions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which are separately disrupting maritime freight routes (see our article on the two straits).

The thread linking oil to your import costs

A more expensive barrel directly increases the cost of freight and energy, two budget lines that weigh on the final cost of any imported goods. But its broadest effect is indirect: rising oil prices fuel inflation expectations, a factor explicitly cited by analysts in debates surrounding the interest rate decisions of the ECB (see our article on the 10 September decision) and the Fed (see our article on the 15 and 16 September meeting).

Higher inflation pushes central banks towards tighter monetary policies, which has a direct effect on the relative value of the euro and the dollar, and therefore on the actual cost of your foreign currency payments.

What this means in practice for your foreign currency payments

If you pay suppliers in dollars, US inflation driven by oil can strengthen the currency and increase your purchasing costs. If you import from the eurozone or pay service providers subject to these same energy pressures in euros, the effect is felt on your transport and supply costs rather than directly on the exchange rate.

In both cases, the challenge is the same: these three factors—oil, key interest rates, and exchange rates—move together, making budget planning over several months more delicate.

In summary

The price of a barrel rising above 100 dollars is not an isolated event: it is part of a chain extending from energy prices to central bank decisions, right down to the actual cost of your foreign currency payments. Understanding this common thread makes it possible to anticipate rather than simply endure the resulting currency fluctuations.

Support from an international payments specialist such as OSolto, registered with ORIAS (No. 26004337), enables you to track these developments and adjust your currency hedging according to market conditions, rather than reacting in an emergency.

FAQ

Why does the price of oil influence my import costs even if I do not purchase energy?

Because it weighs on freight, on overall inflation, and consequently on central bank interest rate decisions, which in turn influence the value of the currencies in which you pay your suppliers.

Will oil prices continue to rise?

This directly depends on the evolution of tensions in the Middle East, which is difficult to forecast with certainty. It is this uncertainty, rather than the current price per barrel, that complicates planning.

What is the link between oil and the decisions of the ECB and the Fed?

A rise in oil prices fuels inflation, a factor that both central banks closely monitor in their interest rate decisions. These decisions then influence the relative value of the euro and the dollar.

How can I protect myself against these combined effects on my foreign currency payments?

Currency hedging allows you to lock in an exchange rate for your upcoming payment deadlines, regardless of how these various factors subsequently develop.