In July 2008, a barrel of oil reached 147 dollars — an all-time record. Queues were growing at petrol stations. Lorry drivers were blocking depots. A litre of diesel was nearing €1.40. In April 2026, a barrel is hovering around 100 to 113 dollars — 30% less than in 2008. And yet, diesel is selling at an average of €2.375 per litre on 8 April 2026 — 70% more than in summer 2008. How is this possible? The answer comes down to three factors that most SME leaders have never taken the time to analyse together: the exchange rate, inflation, and the tax structure of fuel. And this analysis has very concrete consequences for managing your international costs.
The dollar figure trap
The price of oil is quoted in dollars. The media report "a barrel at 147 dollars in 2008" and "a barrel at 100 dollars in 2026". Intuitive conclusion: oil is cheaper today. So prices at the pump should be lower.
Except that a French company does not pay in dollars. It pays in euros. And then the picture changes radically.
In July 2008, the euro was at the peak of its history against the dollar: on 15 July 2008, the euro reached its all-time high at 1.60 dollars. Result: that 147-dollar barrel actually cost the European buyer only 93 euros.
In April 2026, the euro is trading around 1.15 dollars. A 100-dollar barrel therefore costs around 87 euros. Barely cheaper in euros.
And if a barrel rose back to 120 dollars — a plausible scenario if the conflict in Iran persists — it would cost 104 euros, i.e. 12% more than at the absolute 2008 record.
The lesson: when you read the barrel price in dollars, you are reading half the story. The other half is the exchange rate.
Inflation wipes out the rest
Even if the barrel price in euros remains comparable, there is a second bias: inflation.
100 euros in 2026 do not have the same value as 100 euros in 2008. Since then, cumulative inflation in the euro area exceeds 40%. In constant 2026 euros, that 93-euro barrel from July 2008 would be worth around 130 euros today.
In other words: adjusted for inflation, oil in 2008 was objectively much more expensive for businesses than it is today — even with the war in Iran.
This line of reasoning is not a consolation. It is a decision-making tool. An SME that understands the difference between nominal price and real price makes better decisions on purchasing, contracts and FX hedging.
So why is diesel at an all-time high?
If crude oil in real terms has not yet beaten its 2008 record, why is diesel reaching historic levels?
Several factors are piling up.
The tax structure. Around 55 to 60% of pump prices in France are made up of taxes — TICPE and VAT. These taxes have increased since 2008, and because VAT is proportional to the pre-tax price, it mechanically amplifies every increase in crude prices.
Europe's dependence on diesel. The Middle East supplied more than half of European diesel imports in 2025, and around a third of that diesel transited through the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel still accounted for 73% of road fuel consumption in France in 2024. When Hormuz closes, France suffers more than its neighbours.
The 2026 shock. Brent was hovering around 100 dollars a barrel on 1 April, whereas it was trading at 70 dollars on 27 February, the day before the outbreak of war in the Middle East. A 43% increase in five weeks — the most brutal ever recorded over that period. Diesel posted an average price of 2.188 euros per litre on 31 March 2026, an absolute record since 1985.
What this changes for your business
For an SME manager, this analysis is not theoretical. It has three direct implications.
1. Your transport and logistics costs have exploded — and not just yours. Your suppliers, carriers and service providers have also absorbed this increase. Their invoices will rise. If you do not have indexation clauses in your contracts, you will absorb the difference.
2. Your dollar-denominated purchases need close monitoring. If you import raw materials, components or goods invoiced in dollars, two forces are at work simultaneously: the rise in crude, which increases your supplier's production and transport costs, and movements in the EUR/USD rate, which determine what you actually pay in euros. These two variables move together — and sometimes in opposite directions.
3. FX hedging is no longer optional. In 2008, a euro at 1.60 dollars naturally protected European buyers against the surge in crude prices. In 2026, with a euro at 1.15, this natural buffer no longer exists. A rise in the dollar to 1.05 or parity — a possible scenario if the crisis worsens — would mechanically increase all your dollar-denominated imports by 8 to 15%.
What OSolto can do for you
OSolto supports French SMEs in managing their payments and foreign exchange risk exposure.
In this context of extreme volatility, we can help you to:
Analyse your real exposure to foreign currencies, beyond the headline price of your purchases
Secure your upcoming settlements in foreign currencies with a rate fixed in advance, to neutralise EUR/USD uncertainty
Execute your international transfers at rates close to the interbank market, without the excessive margins of traditional banks
Registered with ORIAS (No. 26004337) and operating under ACPR supervision, OSolto is the authorised payment intermediary that makes FX risk management accessible to SMEs.
→ Book an appointment for a free analysis of your exposure on osolto.com or at info@osolto.com
FAQ
Why is the oil price always expressed in dollars? It is a historical convention born in the 1970s, linked to US dominance in energy markets. All global oil transactions are denominated in dollars, which means the real cost for a European company depends as much on the EUR/USD rate as on the crude price itself.
Was the 2008 barrel really more expensive than today for a French SME? In nominal dollars, yes (147 $ vs ~100 $). But in 2026 euros, adjusted for inflation, the 2008 barrel came to around 130 euros. The current level in euros is therefore still below the real 2008 peak — despite the war in Iran.
Why is diesel rising faster than petrol in 2026? Because Europe has been a net diesel importer since the sanctions against Russia in 2022, and its main alternative supply sources (Saudi Arabia, the Emirates) pass through the Strait of Hormuz — currently disrupted by the conflict in Iran.
What is FX hedging and what is it concretely used for? It is a mechanism that allows you to fix today the rate at which you will convert currencies in the future. If you need to pay a US supplier in 3 months, you can lock in the current EUR/USD rate and no longer be exposed to deterioration. OSolto can set up this type of contract for your company.
Will the fall in barrel prices announced after the Iran truce bring pump prices down? Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on 8 April that "when global prices fall, pump prices must fall, as quickly as they rose". But refining and distribution inertia means transmission takes several weeks — and also depends on movements in the dollar.
