Iran-US peace agreement: what we can reasonably expect from it

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: the most eagerly awaited signal

The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil supplies usually transit, had been largely paralysed since the start of the conflict. Its closure had caused oil prices to soar and severe disruption to international shipping.

Trump announced the reopening "without transit fees". Tehran, for its part, mentioned "maritime service fees" in the final moments of the negotiation, a semantic compromise which seems to have unblocked the agreement. Iran would have 30 days to implement this reopening.

Before the conflict, around 140 ships transited through the strait each day. Traffic had improved during the conflict but remained well below normal. A real reopening would have an immediate impact on freight costs, delivery times and shipowners' confidence.

Analysts remain cautious: a return to normal will depend on effective demining in the strait and restored confidence in maritime security. This is not a matter of days, but of weeks.

A welcome drop in oil, but one to put into perspective

Markets reacted quickly and strongly. From the Asian opening on Monday morning, Brent shed more than 4.5% to 83.40 dollars a tonne, while WTI lost more than 5% to 80.54 dollars. Asian stock markets soared at the same time.

The logic is clear: the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices since February is evaporating with the announcement of the deal. and if the Strait of Hormuz does indeed reopen, global crude supplies should gradually normalise, putting further downward pressure on prices.

This is good news for oil-importing economies, including France. A sustainable drop in energy prices lowers production costs, reduces inflationary pressure, and would give the ECB room for manoeuvre on its interest rate policy. US CPI in May was at 4.2%, of which about 60% was energy-related. If WTI remains below 85 dollars, US inflation could recede significantly by autumn.

Nonetheless, we must remain clear-headed: the agreement does not yet settle the Iranian nuclear issue in detail, Israel has not confirmed the withdrawal of its troops from southern Lebanon, and oil markets are capable of reclaiming a risk premium as quickly as they abandoned it if signs of vulnerability appear.

Financial markets cheer, with caution

Beyond oil, the positive shockwave rippled through all markets. Asian stock markets surged at the open on Monday. Assets considered safe havens in times of crisis (dollar, gold to a lesser extent) retreated.

EUR/USD was trading at 1.1566 in Monday's session, after hitting resistance between 1.1600 and 1.1650. The dollar automatically falls when the geopolitical risk premium dissipates: investors who had bought the dollar as a safe haven unwind their positions, weakening the greenback against other major currencies.

Nonetheless, the week of 15 to 19 June promises to be one of the busiest of the year in terms of market events: Fed meeting on 17 June, Bank of England decision, and the "Triple Witching" phenomenon on derivative markets. These factors could amplify volatility in both directions, independently of geopolitical news.

What this means for the Gulf region

For the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the peace agreement is a breath of fresh air. Dubai, which had suffered Iranian strikes in March before air defences intercepted most of the projectiles, is finding the prospect of long-term regional stability once again.

The Dubai real estate market, which had recorded AED 252 billion in transactions in the first quarter of 2026, up 31% year-on-year before the crisis, should benefit from the return of international investor confidence. Analysts had already been observing a quiet return of institutional investors and family offices in "buy the dip" mode for a few weeks. The agreement makes this turnaround official.

The UAE dirham remains pegged to the US dollar at the fixed rate of 3.6725 AED/USD, a parity unchanged since 1997 that has weathered all crises. This stability is one of the foundations of Dubai's attractiveness to foreign investors: it eliminates the risk of devaluation of the local currency. On the other hand, it means that any fluctuation in the dollar is automatically reflected in the cost in euros of an investment or transfer to the Emirates.

Reconstruction: a colossal economic undertaking

What is less talked about is the economic opportunities that peace opens up. Lebanon, which has been hard hit, will enter a reconstruction phase that will mobilise considerable financial flows. Iran itself, whose Pakistani mediator specified that "the reconstruction and economic development of the country after the war" are featured in the agreement, could gradually reopen to international trade if sanctions were to be eased as part of a broader nuclear agreement.

This is not for tomorrow. But it is a prospect that economic players are starting to integrate.

To go further

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Iran-US agreement final? The agreement was confirmed by Washington and Tehran on 14 June 2026, with an official signature scheduled for 19 June in Switzerland. It provides for an "immediate and permanent" ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Areas of uncertainty remain: Israel's position in Lebanon, the precise arrangements for reopening Hormuz and nuclear issues not yet fully resolved.

Why is oil falling so much after the announcement? Oil prices had been pricing in a risk premium since February 2026 related to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and regional instability. The agreement dissipates this premium, which mechanically lowers prices. If the reopening of Hormuz is confirmed in the next 30 days, global crude supply should normalise gradually, reinforcing this bearish trend.

What does the agreement change for a French investor in Dubai? Regional normalisation removes the main factor of uncertainty that had been weighing on the Dubai market since February. Furthermore, the dollar's decline against the euro automatically makes transfers in dirhams more advantageous for a European investor, with the dirham being pegged to the dollar at a fixed rate. This is a favourable window on the foreign exchange front, provided it is optimised rather than left to the discretion of one's bank.

Will the dollar continue to fall? The decline in the dollar observed on 15 June is directly linked to the dissipation of the geopolitical risk premium. Its trajectory will then depend on the Fed's decisions (meeting on 17 June), the evolution of US inflation and the durability of the agreement. A hawkish tone from the Fed could partially counteract the dollar's downward trend.

Does OSolto operate in Gulf currencies? Yes. OSolto provides access to competitive rates on the UAE dirham (AED), Saudi riyal (SAR), US dollar (USD) and more than 30 currencies in total. Accounts are in the client's name, funds never transit through OSolto, and opening is free with no commitment.